The National Weather Service (NWS) is warning that the current hazardous weather that moved into the area Wednesday, Oct. 21, will cause flooding, flash flooding and strong to severe storms in western Utah and southwestern Colorado, including Archuleta County.
A flood watch is in effect through noon on Friday, Oct. 23.
On Wednesday afternoon, the NWS released additional forecast data, stating the southwest San Juan Mountains could see 2 to 4 inches or more of rainfall, with the highest potential for impactful weather being from Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning.
An expected liquid precipitation forecast shows 2.8 inches for Pagosa Springs, with the northwest portion of the county forecasted to receive higher amounts.
The low-end forecast for Pagosa Springs is 2.0 inches, which the high-end forecast is 5.8 inches, according to the NWS.
The agency further notes, “Isolated strong to severe storms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and brief tornadoes,” with those periods being on Wednesday, Oct. 21, from late afternoon through sunset and on Thursday afternoon and evening, Oct. 22.
It notes low confidence in the Thursday period.
Flood conditions
expected
The NWS forecast packet adds the heavy rainfall may result in flooding or flash flooding of small creeks, arroyos, rivers and streams. Debris flows and rockslides are possible in recent burn scars and steep canyons/mountain corridors.
The San Juan River at Pagosa Springs is projected to crest at about 10.73 feet — in minor flood stage, which begins at 10.5 feet — Friday morning around 6 a.m.
During the Archuleta County Board of County Commissioners (BoCC) regular meeting on Tuesday, Archuleta County Sheriff Mike Le Roux provided information on how the county is preparing for potential flooding with the area expected beginning late tonight and into the weekend.
Le Roux explained that the county is preparing for “potential flooding coming our way later this week.”
Le Roux noted that this time last year, the San Juan River peaked at 12.8 and 12.66 feet during October 2025’s historic floods.
He mentioned that forecasts can always go “either way, but we’re expecting the worst, and planning for the worst.”
Le Roux explained that there is potential for rain at higher altitudes causing snowmelt, “which could potentially increase that flood level.”
He also explained that there are two major drainages in the county, and forecasters are unsure if the Piedra or San Juan drainage will be affected more.
Wednesday’s NWS forecast data shows the Piedra River at Arboles cresting above 6 feet.
That river peaked at 5.86 and 7.26 feet in the October 2025 floods.
It also remains to be seen how the 2025 floods will affect this week’s higher projected flows.
“The river channels have changed significantly,” Le Roux said Wednesday, noting that quite a few areas of the San Juan River received restoration work following the October 2025 storms, but that there are still some “significant” debris piles in the Rio Blanco.
He also acknowledged again Wednesday the Piedra draining could be hit worse.
But, Le Roux highlighted both Tuesday with the BoCC and Wednesday in an interview, the county is better prepared this year.
He explained that temporary river gauges have been placed in the San Juan River near mile marker 152 on U.S. 160, “giving us some intel.”
He indicated work is ongoing to place more river gauges upstream from Pagosa Springs on the East Fork and West Fork.
Prepping for possible evacuations
Le Roux noted Tuesday that the county has “started mobilizing resources” and working with the Archuleta County Department of Human Services (DHS) to identify a shelter if needed, likely at the Ross Aragon Community Center.
“We’re not opening that until we need to,” he said.
Le Roux further explained they had begun making contact with those who could be affected.
On Wednesday, Le Roux noted contact has been made with the San Juan River Village Metro District, residents along the Lower Blanco, in the area of mile maker 19 on Colo. 151, Arboles, Estate Circle and in low-lying areas along County Road 500 — all the historic low-lying corridors.
Le Roux noted that some areas start seeing inundation along the San Juan River at 9 feet.
Le Roux also explained Wednesday that, in the event of an evacuation, all evacuees should report to DHS at 550A Hot Springs Blvd. to check in and receive additional information.
Sandbags available
Sandbags are available from both the town and county for residents needing flood protection.
The town is providing sand, 3/8-inch chips, and bags in the parking lot across from the maintenance facility at 550 Pirate Drive.
Residents must fill and lift their own sandbags at the town facility due to limited staff availability. Supplies are available on a first-come, first-served basis.
The county is also providing sandbags.
Sandbags can be filled and picked up at the public works building at 1122 U.S 84.
Filled sandbags are available at the TARA Community Center in Arboles.
Le Roux noted Tuesday that the ACSO has procured a sandbag filling machine to help expedite filling bags.
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